17th September 2024 marked the first anniversary of the controversial 20 mph limits on many roads throughout Wales. How have they been working out?
A reminder on what roads are affected
For those readers who don’t live in Wales, or visit tat often, here’s a reminder of where 20 mph restrictions have come into place:
Restricted roads are usually in residential and built-up areas where there are lots of people. They often have street lights on them, placed no more than 200 yards apart. Historically, these had a 30mph speed limit.
The 20 mph limits are still wildly unpopular
When the new laws came into effect, a lot of people weren’t exactly happy. The petition to repeal the law attracted around 469,000 signatures -the largest number ever recorded by the Senedd. However, remember that about two-thirds of people were initially in favour of the restrictions.
Back in December, we questioned whether people would get used to the speed reductions:
Could it be that many people thought 20mph was a great idea… up until the moment they were driving at bicycle speeds or sitting in traffic queues? Maybe. Alternatively, this could be the usual initial anger about changes to our lifestyle (like seatbelts, smoking in pubs, etc) – something that settles down after teething problems are solved and everyone gets used to it.
Some months on, a YouGov survey gives us some insight:
- 72% of those surveyed opposed the speed limit reduction, with 24% who were supportive and 4% who didn’t know.
- The restrictions were overwhelmingly opposed by Conservative voters (93% against) and Reform voters (89% against).
- The restrictions were less unpopular with other groups, but there still wasn’t much enthusiasm for them. For example, 56% of Plaid Cymru voters opposed the new restrictions.
Note that the polling took place in late July, but we’d be surprised if there was a big change since then.
Are the reductions achieving anything?
The 20 mph restrictions had a number of aims:
- to reduce serious driving-related casualties on Welsh roads
- to reduce the associated costs of treating injuries related to road accidents
- to encourage more people to walk or cycle, rather than use cars
- to improve air quality and/or reduce carbon emissions
Obviously, it’s going to be hard to measure some of these in the short term, and in any case, we wouldn’t expect to see any dramatic changes yet. In particular, switching to bikes or walking for short journeys – where that’s feasible – takes a major culture shift. It might be years before those effects start to filter through. To measure this, the government will do a ‘process evaluation’ next year, and a mid-term evaluation in April 2027. But the final impact evaluation report won’t be here until 2029.
However, we do have some figures for road casualties. When the North Wales Police’s Crime Commissioner and the Chief Constable said they’d seen no evidence that the 20mph speed limit had achieved anything, the Welsh Government pushed back. According to Wrexham.com, a government spokeswoman said:
The latest data shows that collisions on local roads have reduced significantly…We will continue to monitor the long-term trend, but things are heading in the right direction… The total number of casualties is 17% lower than in the previous quarter (982) and 16% lower than in the same quarter in 2023.
Collisions are also down by 18% with the comparable 2023 quarter, and were the lowest ever recorded (except during the Covid-19 restrictions).
The same YouGov poll showed many people are sceptical about the reductions having any safety benefits. That’s pretty usual for any unpopular policy. We all turn scepticism on and off as it suits us.
In summary, there are some signs that the lower speeds may be helping reduce accidents, the jury’s out on anything else.
Fine tuning or backtracking?
According to the RAC, £5 million has been allocated to reassess some of the speed limits. They report:
Transport Minister Ken Skates stated that the decision to reverse some of the road changes to 20mph was in response to criticism from ‘a lot of people’ and consistent concerns over their implementation.
You have to admire the diplomatic language! Localgov.co.uk gives some insight into what ‘a lot of people’ means:
…councils have received more than 10,500 requests to consider changing about 1,500 stretches of road back to 30mph.
It said by far the most requests were in Newport, where there were 500 appeals from residents for 334 locations to go back to 30mph.
Now, if you’re a supporter of the reductions, chances are that you’ll see these alterations as necessary and inevitable fine tuning. And if you oppose them, this will look like an admission of failure, backtracking on a terrible plan.
20 mph is staying (for now)
September 25th was the big day, when the Welsh Senned voted on the future of the 20 mph rule. And it’s staying. The conservative-led motion to overturn the 20-mph rule was rejected by 34 votes to 17.
That probably means that the restrictions will be with us until at least 2026, when the next Welsh parliament is elected. We can safely say that if the Conservatives and/or Reform are running the show, the restrictions rules will be jettisoned at considerably more than 20mph. But whether that’s a realistic prospect is beyond even our stupendous powers to know.
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