In Part One of this post, we looked how the goalposts kept moving for the UK ban on new ICE (internal combustion engine) car sales.
The upshot of those shenanigans is that the UK is currently aiming for a 2030 deadline. There’s some uncertainty over what its scope will be – it’s unclear whether hybrids will still be sold, for example – but that’s the date.
And blimey! 2030 is just six short years away. In this part, we’ll look at the auto-manufacturers’ reactions to the date and our prospects for reaching it.
What do the auto-manufacturers
think about a 2030 deadline?
Last year, Rishi Sunak announced that he was pushing the 2030 ICE sales deadline back to 2035. As we’ve seen, that didn’t last, as Labour promptly reinstated the 2030 date.
What’s interesting was the reaction of UK auto manufacturers gave to Sunak’s delay. You might imagine that they’d be delighted. After all, it’s harder to maintain profitability on EVs – at least on the cheaper ones that sell to a mass market.
And yet listen to some of the comments they made last year (all quotes are from this Evening Standard piece).
A spokesperson for Mini responded:
‘[Mini] will not change’ from its plan of becoming a ‘purely electric brand from 2030 globally…We and the whole automotive industry needs clarity on the ZEV [zero-emissions vehicle] topic.’
The Stellantis representative said:
‘[We are] ‘committed to achieving 100 per cent zero-emission new car and van sales in the UK and Europe by 2030’. [Stellantis] added that it would move to electric sales ‘ahead of current legislation’, with Fiat becoming an EV-only firm by 2027 and Vauxhall by 2028… Clarity is required from Governments on important legislation, especially environmental issues that impact society as a whole.’
Jaguar Land Rover commented:
‘Our plans are on track and we welcome certainty around legislation for the end of sale of petrol and diesel powered cars.’
And here’s one more, from Ford:
‘This is the biggest industry transformation in over a century and the UK 2030 target is a vital catalyst to accelerate Ford into a cleaner future. Our business needs three things from the UK government: ambition, commitment and consistency. A relaxation of 2030 would undermine all three.’
Get the picture? Behind the polite-yet-frosty phrasing, you sense that auto manufacturers were tearing their hair out over the dithering.
The reason is that for an auto manufacturer, sudden changes in direction are like trying to do a three-point turn in an oil tanker. Strategies for big manufacturers are measured in years, and each new car requires dozens of coordinated processes connected with design, research, costing, manufacturing, testing and marketing.
On top of that, dithering really hits consumer demand. Think of it this way: if you don’t especially want a new EV, you aren’t going to be encouraged to switch over if you believe you can now delay for another few years.
Just one manufacturer seemed happy about the delay. No guesses which one. Step forward, Toyota. Despite having success with the hybrid Prius, the Japanese giant has been infamously slow to develop its own full-fat EVs. Past company announcements have given the impression that they want to wait until this electric-car-thing blows over. No doubt they’re disappointed by Starmer’s commitment to the new/old 2030 deadline.
Is a 2030 ICE ban achievable?
Putting a policy in place is one thing. Achieving it is quite another. The problem with any environment-related legislation is that despite massive support for reducing carbon emissions, people are much less keen on any initiative that either (a) hits them in the wallet or (b) impacts their lifestyle. A 2021 Sky News survey found only 50% supported a 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars.
And ultimately, in a democracy, the ban won’t be enacted unless it attracts sufficient support. So the 2030 date depends on whether we can overcome two main issues with EV adoption:
- High upfront costs
- Weak charging infrastructure
Upfront costs
In order to replace new ICE cars on the forecourt, people have to be able to afford an electric alternative. And although EVs offer cheaper running costs, the upfront cost is much higher than the ICE equivalent. In fact, according to Electric Car Guide, the average ticket price for a UK electric car is almost £51K.
Why? Because manufacturers are concentrating on making high-end luxury super-barges, where the profit margins are higher. While this focus remains, even the smaller offerings are expensive. An electric Vauxhall Corsa, for example, will set you back £32,000; the petrol equivalent is just £19,000. There are signs this is changing, with 2024 seeing some more reasonable offerings. According to This is Money, these include the Dacia Spring (£14 995), the Citroen e-C3 (£21,990), and in a few months, the Hyundai Inster (under £22,000).
However, that’s just a trickle of cheaper models when we need a tsunami. Cardiff Business School’s Professor Peter Wells sees three possible solutions:
1. Abandon market protection and let in cheaper, lower cost, but often actually better, Chinese cars.
2. Accept that the market, still protected, will be much smaller than current forecasts if manufacturers lack the EVs to replace ICE vehicles.
3. Allow manufacturers to pay punitive fines at a time when they are falling behind the R&D race.
Wells argues that option one is preferable, given that there’s “ample scope for joint ventures with Chinese manufacturers to bring in small EVs.” adding that, “It would be better to develop relationships with them, rather than keep them out.”
So to some extent, the politicians are only part of the picture. Whether we’re ready in 2030 depends on whether manufacturers finally step up and deliver EVs that ordinary people can afford. Yet if the politicians waver on that date, EV manufacturers have no incentive to produce them.
If we had to lay a bet, our guess is that the lack of affordability will result in some sort of weak ban in 2030, perhaps just for cars with no battery power.
Lack of charging infrastructure
That topic’s a doozy, and this article is already pretty long, so we’ll kick that one down the road for next time. See you in a fortnight!
Whenever the EV switchover happens, for the foreseeable future WVS will still be here bringing great levels of service for car owners in the Cardiff and South Wales area. WVS provides services, repairs and MOTs, delivering a main dealer level of care at affordable prices. To book your vehicle in, or for any enquiries, get in touch.